🦢 ORANGE SWAN DAILY 11/21
The read of the filter catching all the moves; pre-close!
🦢 ORANGE SWAN DAILY — 11/21
THE SETUP
Today’s tape wasn’t quiet. For the first time in over a week, we saw a material shift in how whales positioned across the indices, and it wasn’t random noise, it was decisive and it hit all the right ingredients that normally precede a short-term reversal window.
You can see it in three places:
1️⃣ The DTE structure changed.
Instead of pure 0DTE smashing, whales reached out a bit, a behavior that only shows up when they’re prepping for movement that needs time to play out. That usually surfaces right before sharp, short-term counter-trend moves.
2️⃣ Index ETFs dominated the books again.
SMH, SPY, QQQ : when all three light up in the same morning session, it’s almost never about isolated news.
It reflects index-level expectation, and historically that aligns with short squeezes, liquidity pockets, or major technical retests.
3️⃣ The premium distribution widened.
Not just tiny scalps. We saw blocks big enough to signal intent. When whales widen premium and tighten DTE at the same time, the market is positioning for a meaningful but temporary push — exactly the kind that fakes strength before choosing the real direction.
This combo hasn’t appeared since the early November.