🚨 ORANGE SWAN DAILY: THE HEDGE REGIME IS UNWINDING
Whales are posturing and a whale order to match
🟠 ORANGE SWAN DAILY: THE HEDGE REGIME IS UNWINDING
Bessent as potential fed chair has changed rate hike odds significantly and whale are reacting.
Date: December 3, 2025
Status: 🟢 ORANGE SWAN TURNS GREEN
Read: Hedging Pressure Falls. Upside Activity Appears.
🦢 THE EVOLUTION OF THE SIGNAL
Orange Swan tracks how aggressively the market is paying for downside protection relative to upside exposure. The last three sessions form a clean progression:
12/1 → Heavy hedging (Downside focused)
Big Put dominance. Market bracing for negative catalysts.
12/2 → Continued hedging (But no escalation)
Still defensive, but the pressure wasn’t building anymore.
A sign the market was reaching “hedge saturation.”
12/3 → The shift (Hedging unwinds, upside risk-taking appears)
The day where the posture changed.
Not euphoric — just meaningfully less protective.
This is the natural flow progression we look for.