🚀 Pre-FOMC Swandex and SPY Levels Special (Free)
what to expect today and where to hold whether you're long or short
Pre-FOMC Swandex and SPY Levels Special (Free)
FOMC day. SPY’s sitting at 709.86, nobody’s doing anything, and the flow looks scary on the surface. But before you go buy a bunch of puts because everyone on fintwit is panicking, look at what the Swandex has actually been doing this week.
Apr 20 was 28. That’s what real fear looks like in this data. Short DTE puts stacking, bears running ascending fills clean, nobody wanted to be long anything. We ground back slowly through last week, then scored 62 Sunday and 71 yesterday. On a flat tape. SPY went nowhere both days and institutions were building calls. That’s not reacting to a move, that’s getting ready for one.
Today pulls back to 44. Technically bearish. But context is everything. The puts you’re seeing this morning are seatbelts, not bets. The long positioning from the last two sessions is still there underneath. A market that’s actually scared of Powell looks like 28, not 44 on top of two bull days.
🕵🏿♂️ SPY levels for FOMC
Current price is 709.86. The yellow lines on the chart are gap levels. These are the targets volatility is likely to test or close today. The teal lines are intraday structure.
The gold lines are where volatility goes to do its work. Gaps are magnetic on high vol events and FOMC is exactly that. 712.93 is the nearest one to close to the upside. 714.90 is where a genuine dovish reaction probably runs. Below, 705.66 is the first real downside target if Powell spooks the market, and 701.97 is the deep flush level that only gets tested if things get genuinely ugly.
How to think about it: Calls make sense above 712.93 holding. Puts make sense below 707.91 with 705.66 as the target. Between those two prices, before 2pm, the answer is probably nothing.