🏟️Pre-Game: This Week's Walkthrough, PA and Flow Tutorials, Picks

Game Day arrives tomorrow morning. Let's get it!

Aug 12, 2024

∙ Paid

Welcome to Day 4! Tomorrow we’ve got our first week after some basic training—let’s think of it as a scrimmage—so tonight we’re going to piece together some concepts, add a couple more flow plays, and hope to the market Gods that all this prep doesn’t end with a torn achilles before Power Hour.

🏟️ Pre-Market Prep—Game Plan Walkthrough

Once upon a time I played ball— and one of the few things my lazy ass enjoyed was the walk-through the day before a game; the idea being you slow shit down to its basic components and literally walk methodically through the game plan and scenarios.

We actually have some pretty dense PA right now, so I found it helpful for myself to break it down, and hopefully it simplifies some things for newer traders.

🏈1. The (Mostly) Bullish Scenario

SPY continues uptrend and runs into:

a. The next monthly level (537.42)

b. The GAP level created by ES last week (539-540)

It’s much more likely than not the two happen together—either with SPY reversing briefly at the monthly and bouncing off trend, or covering both at once with breakout squeeze/scam candle—I believe the kids call them “hulk boners.”

Then SPY could see a breakout from the level that sends it to 550 (green arrow)

Or SPY could retest the trend after failing to the upside—and if it breaks, head as low as 522 (in red).

This is a fairly easy situation to play—the rejections and trend breaks will send us to 550 or 522—we just have to wait for confirmation.

🏈The (Annoying) More Bearish Scenario

ES loses the trend before testing the upside levels and we’re catching bounces while the PA settles. In other words—much more annoying to play from a point of control, because we’re constantly reacting while a direction is chosen.

💡THE KEY WITH EITHER IS PATIENCE—MAKE SURE TO TAKE WHAT THEY GIVE US BY WAITING FOR RETESTS ON LEVELS, AND BREAKS ON TRENDS.

This is the type of area where you’re likely to see a lot of wicks on the hourly chart—and those wicks mean people got faked out trying to jump the retest. If a play isn’t confirmed it’s not a play in these waters, it’s a trap.

📓 FLOW PLAYBOOK: Playing Smart

Just like in football, flow and Price Action go together most logically when youre taking advantage of the room you’re given to operate. So…

Deep Bomb Plays: Grabbed at major support/resistance, and when the indices have room or a clear direction. This is flow that you patiently wait for, or a SPY play when you’ve got a rock solid thesis playing out to a tee.

Mid-Gainers and First Downs—your standard flow swings.:

These are your 40-100% gainers, but what’s important to remember is that you keep them relatively close to in the money. These contract pick up their premium by going in the money rather than being ridiculously deep outside. The beauty of these plays though is that you may intend for something modest, but something breaks your way and the 100% becomes 300% by the time you hit target

Short Gains (often called base hits):

sometimes these will be flow plays, but often it will just be easy SPY scalps based on our morning YEET plus plan. (I don’t have screenshots of those lol.)

The YEET