🔴 RED SWAN SPECIAL: CHINA IS BREAKING RANK
A comparative look at Chinese ADR flow through the prism of Orange Swan
🔴 RED SWAN: CHINA IS BREAKING RANK
At the surface, the market is defensive. Index protection remains heavy, downside is being paid for, and the broader Orange Swan read is tilted risk-off. But underneath, something very specific is happening.
China is diverging. That divergence is what we’re calling a Red Swan.
🧮 ORANGE SWAN: THE BASELINE
Across all flow prints, the broad market sentiment is cautious.
Orange Swan Score: 3.97 (Neutral –)
The Vibe: Put weight dominates the blend.
However, when you isolate the index complex (SPY, QQQ, SMH), the score collapses to 1.10. This is a clear Risk-Off posture. The major indices are actively hedging broad exposure and paying for downside well into future expiries.
That is the macro backdrop.