🧢SPX: peekaboo
Bears really thought
It looked like the end was near…then bulls took one look at SPY and said—
🎥 Trade review VIDEO: Two-Minute Drill — Why We Went Long SPY at the Bottom (as you can tell in video, your boy is under the weather).
🕵️ SPY LEVELS
🔵 Blue / 🩵 Teal = Gap Levels | ⬜ White = Weekly | 🔴 Red = Monthly
⬆️ ABOVE: ⬜ 715.59 | ⬜ 716.50 (High of Range)
📍 CURRENT: 711.59
⬇️ BELOW: 🩵 710.62 | 🟡 707.04 | 🔴 701.80 | 🔴 695.94 / 695.33 | 🔴 689.79 / 686.75 / 685.72 | 🔴 682.01 (Nuke Line)
SPY ripped up to 715 on Monday and Tuesday, tagged that gap level at 714.70, and got smacked back. We are now sitting at 711.88, which is right in the middle of the range between 712.93 above and 709.01 below. That 712.93 blue line was support on the way up and is now acting as a lid on the way back down. Price needs to reclaim it and hold it to get another shot at 714.70.
The gap everyone needs to understand is between 709.01 and 708.88. That is a tight cluster of two gap levels sitting right on top of each other, which means if price breaks below and fills that gap it has a clear run to 705.66. That is your stop zone if you are in calls. Below 708.88 and the thesis changes.
🎯 HOW TO TRADE IT
🐂 Bullish: Reclaim 712.93 and hold it on the hourly. That is your signal. Calls make sense there with 714.70 as the first target.
🐻 Bearish: Lose 709.01 on a candle close. Gap fills to 708.88 then the run to 705.66 opens up. Puts below 709 with 705.66 as target.
⚪ Neutral: Chop between 709 and 712.93 means nobody won. Sit on your hands and let it decide.
🌊 THE ORCA SUITE | SWANDEX
Today’s SWANDEX: 71 — Bullish
Two consecutive green readings now. Yesterday was 62. Today jumped to 71. Here is what drove the score:
🟢 Put/Call Premium Split scored 22/25. Bulls spent $56M in premium today vs bears spending $26M. That is a 68/32 split. Whales were in a buying mood.
🟢 Expiry Urgency scored 16/20. The patient money dominated today. 120 trades had DTE of 60 or greater vs only 8 in the danger zone at 14 days or under. When smart money goes out to July, August, January, they are not hedging a position. They are building one.
🟡 Semis/Tech Alignment scored 13/20. Semis were bullish but mixed. $26.6M in semi bull premium vs $10.7M bear. Good skew but not clean. The two-sided INTC flow keeps this from scoring higher. When the semis are truly aligned you will know it. This is not quite that yet.
🔴 Inverter Signal scored 3/15. The defensive/inverter flows are live. GEV puts in the millions, RTX puts, ASML puts, BA puts. The big bears are not gone, they are just getting drowned out by the call volume today. Respect the inverters. They are usually early, not wrong.
🐋 PLUSH FLOW | Today’s Best
All ASK-side. All Vol>OI. All OTM. Plush criteria met across the board.