🥺 Swan Song of the TransBulls 🏳️🌈
Milt’s guide to the market.
The market is going up.
It is going up because it went up, and it went up because it is going up, and the going up is the reason for the gone up which is the cause of the going up still. This is not a contradiction. This is April. The bulls who were bears who became bulls when the bears stopped paying rent are now the loudest bulls in the room, which is the most bearish thing a bull can do, but we are not there yet; and, until we are there, we are here.
Which is up.
Earnings are beating because companies are doing well, and companies are doing well because investors are buying, and investors are buying because earnings are beating, and the beating of earnings is the buying of stocks, which are doing well because of companies beating earnings. The circle is a ramp. The ramp is a circle. The difference between a circle and a ramp is that on a ramp you are making money while going in circles, which feels less like circles and more like progress, which is what circles feel like before they stop. Bears who have been short since 6,400 are briefly wondering if they are bulls who haven’t had the intelligence of fortitude to jump on the ramp.
They are not. They are bears. But if you strip the conviction from a bear and the capital from the conviction, a broke bear is just a scared bull, and a scared bull is perhaps the most bearish thing of all. A TransBull.
JPMorgan cut their target to 7,200 last week and raised it to 7,600 this week, having been wrong in one direction and now being right in the other, which is the same as being wrong in the other direction later, which they will also do with equal confidence. Their strategists noted the RSI had exceeded the 95th percentile, which is analyst for this should stop—they raised the target anyway. When the RSI stops, JP and his friend Morgan will note gravely that the RSI has stopped, pause, and issue a new target above wherever it stopped, flagging with fresh alarm that the RSI is now at the 100th percentile, which is analyst for it has stopped, here is a higher number, you are welcome.
Bad news was good news and the bad news now is that good news is good news again, which is bad news for the people who needed bad news to be good news and are now getting good news which feels, to them, like the worst news. $INTC, left for dead at $18, eulogized by every desk on the street, walked into earnings Thursday night and printed $0.29 against an estimate of negative one cent quite alive and well. Three thousand percent. The man showed up to his own funeral, straightened his tie, asked who ordered the cold cuts, and went up 24% before anyone had changed out of their black. The shorts were right for two years and wrong for one session. Two years of right and one day of wrong is, mathematically, expensively, just wrong. Again, any bears left are just scared bulls without horns, conviction or money remaining.
Here is the thing about a ramp that everyone is finally sure is a ramp: you are going to buy the top. You are not a fool, and yet buying the top is, by every available definition, the action of one. The market has noted your intelligence, respected your patience, watched you wait for confirmation, and then made a fool of you anyway, because the only way to avoid buying the top is to buy before it is the top, at which point it is not the top yet, at which point you are not buying the top, and so the market—deeply offended by your actions and yours alone—will make it the top immediately. The certainty you always wanted is the doubt this market always needed.
The position that looks cleanest is the one the chart has been patiently, lovingly, specifically constructing the setup to betray, yours in particular, because yours waited for confirmation, and confirmation is what the top hands out for free right before it hands out something else entirely. Four straight weeks of all-time highs, a JPMorgan upgrade, a 3,000% earnings beat, and that warm spreading feeling that this time is different. That feeling is not insight but is the ticket…and the fool who bought it was you.
So yes, let the ramp ramp and the bulls bull and the bears stare and despair at a market that doesn't care about their perfectly reasoned, thoroughly researched incorrect lair of a bear case. Let JPMorgan raise and rephrase and re-amaze us with a target that's higher than the place they just praised. Let the shorts get long and the longs get longer and the ones who were wrong get a little bit wronger until the wrongness compounds and resounds, and the whole thing comes around to the same bottomed-out ground where were down before the up.
And if you’re truly are a bear and pray each day that we’ll sell, no bullshit transition bullish—then the market’s certain to fail.
SPY Section
📊 SPY LEVELS | The Map
🔵 Blue / 🩵 Teal = Gap Levels | ⬜ White = Weekly | 🔴 Red = Monthly
⬆️ ABOVE: 🔵 714.53 — ⬜ 720.00
📍 CURRENT: 714.01
⬇️ BELOW: 🩵 712.69 — 🩵 710.62 — 🩵 707.17 — ⬜ 704.00 — 🔴 701.80 — ⬜ 700.00 — 🔴 695.94 — 🔴 695.33 — 🔴 691.83 — 🔴 689.79 — ⬜ 688.00 — 🔴 686.75 — 🔴 685.72 — ⬜ 684.00 — 🔴 682.01 — 🔴 681.68 — 🔴 679.94 — 🔴 677.14 — ⬜ 676.00 — 🔴 674.51 — 🔴 674.10 — 🔴 672.45 — 🔵 670.00 — 🔴 667.42
SPY closed the week at 714.01, pinned just under the weekly high of 714.53 like a man who ran up four flights of stairs and is now catching his breath at the door. The chart is honest: we ripped from 670 on the 14th to 714 by the 17th, chopped sideways for a week while the market decided whether it believed itself, got spooked into a Thursday wick all the way down to 707, and then reclaimed Friday like nothing happened. That wick matters. It was the market checking whether anyone was actually holding, and the answer, apparently, was yes. SPY wants 720. Until 714.53 breaks and holds, this is a ceiling not a launchpad, and a ceiling kissed twice has feelings about the third visit.
🎯 HOW TO TRADE IT
Bullish: SPY breaks and closes above 714.53. Target 720. Simple.
Bearish: SPY gets rejected at 714.53 and loses 710.62. First target 707.17, then 701.80 if that fails.
Neutral: SPY grinds between 712 and 714 with no clean break either way. The answer is nothing. Wait for the break. Do not let the range make the decision for you.